Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
